Multidimensional analysis and forecasting of the relationship between indicators of industrial and technological development and the level of economic security

Abstract

A theoretical-applied model has been built for analyzing industrial-technological development directly within the system of economic security. A system of indicators has been constructed that are mutually agreed in the context of the analysis of the state of economic security and components of industrial-technological development (investment, international, environmental, educational, scientific, industrial, innovative, technological). Based on the system of indicators, analysis of variance in the industrial-technological development and level of economic security was carried out. The levels of correlation of indicators (high, medium, low) have been determined, based on which the interrelations of industrial-technological development and economic security were systematized. A graphic-analytical and regression procedure was used to define the correlation dependence of industrial-technological development on economic security. The industrial-technological development has been forecasted in terms of the indicators with high correlation (the level of investment, openness of the economy, export of high-tech products, industrial products index) and medium correlation (the share of renewable energy consumption, the level of expenditures on education to GDP, the share of specialists performing scientific and technical work). The system of indicators of economic security assessment has been expanded in terms of its individual components (investment-innovative, foreign economic, energy, social, macroeconomic security), taking into consideration aspects in the industrial-technological development. Using the reported analytical and predictive results makes it possible to establish groups of factors that influence the industrial-technological development and economic security. In this way, it becomes possible to identify those tools and means whose application could ensure an increase in the level of industrial-technological development and economic security