State management of import dependency and state’s economic security ensuring: New analysis to evaluating and strategizing

Abstract

The need to improve public administration of import dependency was characterized (in the example of Ukraine) and the signs of its influence and interconnection with ensuring the state’s economic security are characterized. The methodological sequence of import dependency evaluation is substantiated. Using Hotelling’s method of transformation (the method of principal components), the multiplicative form is presented and the integral index of import dependency of the country’s economy is calculated. Harrington’s interval scale is used to summarize the results of the integral evaluation of import dependency. The results of the evaluation have confirmed the high level of import dependency of the Ukrainian economy and clear tendencies for its strengthening, which is critically threatening to the country’s economic security. Using the tool of multivariate dynamic regression modeling, a statistically significant correlation between the level of import dependency and the country’s economic security is established. The economic and mathematical descriptive model of state management of the state’s economic security is formed, which is embedded in a methodical approach to strategizing the state policy of import substitution. The purpose of the state management of import substitution, the parameters of ensuring the country’s economic security agreed with it, the strategic priorities of the state policy of import substitution and the indicators of their implementation are determined.